📊 Market Sizing Analysis
TAM • SAM • SOM Framework for Circular Food Hubs
TAM • SAM • SOM Framework for Circular Food Hubs
A comprehensive market sizing analysis for neighborhood-scale circular food hubs addressing food access challenges, local economic development, and community resilience across the United States.
All U.S. neighborhoods facing food access challenges — approximately 25,000 census tracts classified as low-income with limited healthy food access. Includes infrastructure, operations, and programming costs.
Sunbelt cities (AZ, CA, TX, NM, NV) with climate suitable for year-round growing and high population growth — approximately 3,000 target neighborhoods with similar demographics to Phoenix.
Realistic 5-7 year capture with 5-10 pilot hubs in the Phoenix metro area and regional expansion. Based on $500K-$2M capital investment per hub plus ongoing operational revenue.
Based on USDA Food Access Research Atlas data identifying ~25,000 census tracts as food deserts. Average hub investment of $500K-$2M per location for infrastructure, land, and initial operations.
Focused on Sunbelt states with year-round growing seasons, rapid population growth, and significant food access disparities. Represents ~12% of national food desert tracts.
Conservative estimate based on 5-10 hub pilot program over 5-7 years, starting in Phoenix metro. Includes capital costs plus 3-year operational runway per hub.
| Metric | What It Represents | Estimated Value |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | All U.S. food desert neighborhoods (~25,000) | $12.5B–$50B |
| SAM | Sunbelt region target neighborhoods (~3,000) | $1.5B–$6B |
| SOM | 5-10 pilot hubs in 5-7 year horizon | $2.5M–$20M |
| Per Hub | Capital + 3-year operational budget | $500K–$2M |
Maricopa County has 200+ census tracts classified as food deserts, with South Phoenix and West Valley communities experiencing the highest rates of food insecurity.
Phoenix is the fastest-growing U.S. city, adding 25,000+ residents annually. New developments often lack food infrastructure, creating immediate demand.
With 300+ days of sun and potential for year-round growing (with proper shade/water), Arizona is ideal for urban agriculture innovation.
Arizona has $50M+ in available grants for food access initiatives through USDA, state programs, and private foundations focused on food equity.
The circular food hub model addresses multiple funding categories simultaneously: food access, economic development, education, sustainability, and community health. This multi-benefit approach qualifies for diverse grant streams and creates compounding community value that traditional food retail cannot match.
10-15 food vendors paying $500-$1,500/mo in stall fees, plus percentage of sales. Projected: $100K-$200K annually per hub.
Cooking classes, farm tours, school field trips generating $50K-$100K/year through fees, sponsorships, and grants.
Farmers markets, cultural festivals, private events bringing $75K-$150K/year in rental fees and vendor commissions.
On-site garden produce sold direct to consumers and local restaurants: $25K-$75K/year depending on scale.